Category Archives: Ten Year Notes

How Far Does 30yr Go?

Written By: Pauly @SPZ_Trader

ZB has enjoyed a fantastic recovery since finding support at 64’14  38% (45’25/75’29).   Certainly, Yellen’s “get out of jail” card got the ball rolling.   I would have thought the subsequent rally would have stalled at 168, but a funny think happen on the way to the palladium.  Deutsche bank which has taken on more body blows than a Donald Trump political rival has put a fire under the bid for Bunds as well as Bonds. 

Markets have a way of moving beyond expectations which takes us to how far can ZB go?  The attached 4h chart has a defined range 68’08 to 72’10.  My take is I see a move into the mid-zone 70’01/70’21. We have two fibonacci targets confluencing  69’30  78% (64’12/71’16) & 70’05  50%  (64’12/75’28).   The zone represents a supply area and would result in a six point rally from lows set on September 21.  From here I would expect a move towards 66’25.

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Beginning of a Larger Move, or Already Overdone – Bonds ZB

Written By:  Pauly @SPZ_Trader

Friday’s continued sell-off in the bond market caught the attention of all traders no matter your trading vehicle of choice.  Yes, Virginia the bond market’s tentacles are quite lengthy.

The sell-off started about a week ago with the disappointing action following a weaker that expected Non-Farm payroll report (151k, coupled with .1 wage-gain growth).  The bonds spent the early part of this past week retracing NFP Friday losses, and briefly eclipsed those highs perhaps in anticipation of a little more juice (Quantitative Easing) from Mssr Draghi at Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.  Well, Draghi did not provide what the market had hoped for; at the very least extension of QE beyond March 2017. Most realize the ECB is handcuffed when it comes to available assets to purchase, so the market was counting on a definitive extension of the program. Bunds felt the impact and summarily Bonds too.

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What Rallied E-Mini S&P (ES) Today, 15 Ticks in Euro (EC) – Trade Setups 5.24.16

This morning I talked with our traders about the bullishness I was seeing in equities, in particular the E-mini S&P.  I have been tweeting the past few weeks about the flattening of the 2/10 and 5/30 year yield curves.  This flattening typically means bearish action and ES futures ignored this action. ES also ignored the rally in the Dollar, which is also typically bearish.
When the cash markets opened today ES drifted higher.  There was no real way for us to get into a trade because we did not get a setup to trade off of.  You don’t catch every move, even if you believe you know the direction of the market like we did today in ES.  

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Trading 10 YR & Gold Using Data & Technials 1.26.16

This morning we focused on Gold because it had multiple technical reasons for a TradeSetup & 10 YR because we had Data & Technical reasons to take a trade.

First of all, if you don’t trade either of these markets it really doesn’t matter because my goal is to get you to understand why we looked at these markets vs any of the other markets we follow.  How the TradeSetup is really what matters and more importantly the process of getting to the point of execution.

Gold had a 1 minute, 5 minute and 60 minute level all right around the exact same price.  When I see multiple confirmations on multiple time frames then that is where I am going to focus my attention.  Today’s Gold trade setup didn’t work, but that didn’t mean it was a bad trade, it just means that it didn’t work.  NEWS FLASH, not every trade is going to be a winner, but when you lose on a trade according to your plan in my opinion that’s not a bad trade.

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Gold & 10 YR Multiple Confirmation Setups 1.7.16

Busy day for us in the member area as we had four TradeSetups; one in Gold, one in 10 YR, and two in the E-mini S&P.  Today I am going to go over the Gold & 10 YR setups because they had stronger confirmation, but I will discuss why I felt doing the 10 YR trade was somewhat of a hedge against one of our E-mini S&P TradeSetups.

I constantly get asked how to trade multiple products.  The key for me is preparation.  I probably trade Gold a handful of times a quarter, but when the setup has multiple confirmations it’s just about a dollar amount of risk and really I could care less what market it comes in.  Sometimes I end doing better in the markets that I trade less often because I don’t let opinion get in the way of what the charts are showing me.

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